Further, the Democrats’ maneuver could easily fall apart and leave them with nothing - no reconciliation bill and no bipartisan infrastructure deal - ahead of the August Senate recess. Yet, issues reportedly linger in terms of funding mechanisms and spending priorities. Senate Majority Leader Schumer (N.Y.) scheduled the vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill for next Wednesday - a tactic that Democrats hope will allow them to pass the reconciliation bill before the August recess. They need 50 votes in the Senate to pass this bill through budget reconciliation, and are banking on the votes of moderate Senate Democrats, including Senators Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) - neither of whom has indicated that they are on board with the bill. However, the viability of that approach, based on my own experience along with past history, suggests that their theory could be problematic.Īnd to be sure, Democrats also face a number of considerable hurdles as they move forward with the proposal. Currently, Democrats are operating under the assumption that the redistribution of wealth by taxing the rich is politically valuable, and will not cause any electoral backlash - even if this is done by eschewing bipartisanship. That being said, this is unlikely to happen. Looking ahead to the midterms, the Democrats would benefit from approaching the social priorities in this bill - childcare, education, and clean energy investments - on an issue-by-issue basis, rather than ramming through one of the largest government expenditures in history on a simple party line vote. History could very well repeat itself again this year if the Biden administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress seek to pass - intact - this $3.5 trillion-dollar proposal through the reconciliation process. ĭemocrats faced a similar fate in 2010 in President Obama’s first midterm election, when the party lost control of Congress once again due in large part to voters’ perception of governmental overreach by the Democrats in power. I was hired by Bill Clinton in 1994 after the Democrats’ blow-out defeat in that year’s midterm election - so, I well-recall the damaging political impact of government overreach and the then-largest tax increase in history, which the then-Democratic Congress passed without Republican support. Put another way, it is highly unlikely that Biden will be able to get credit both for this larger $3.5 trillion social reform bill, passage or no passage, and for passing infrastructure in a bipartisan fashion. Ultimately, regardless of the plan’s outcome - that is, passage or failure - pursuing this proposal will end up being a lose-lose situation for Democrats in the 2022 midterms. The progressive budget proposal vastly expands governmental social, environmental, educational, and healthcare programs - including funding for universal pre-K, nutrition assistance, the child tax credit, and clean energy initiatives - all of which would be paid for by tax increases on the wealthiest Americans and American businesses. Democrats have lauded this proposal as a progressive bill that would produce change in American society on par with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal or Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. This week, President Biden and congressional Democrats released their $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan.
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